Archive for June, 2008

Why Newspapers Must Embrace RSS

Thursday, June 26th, 2008

As an aside to my post on Jeff Jarvis, Felix Salmon has a good post over at Portfolio.com. Salmon is referring to a recent report from Forrester.

The main thing I’d try to communicate to the newspaper-industry readers of the Forrester report is that RSS and blogs are not unfortunate necessities, they’re one of your brightest hopes. Few US newspapers will ever be able to compete with the NYT in terms of attracting inbound links for the nation’s biggest stories. But when it comes to local content, the field is wide open: the NYT isn’t even the best newspaper for metro news in New York City, let alone anywhere else.

So embrace the bloggers in your area, encourage them, feed them, give them full RSS feeds sliced and diced to whatever specifications they desire, and let them bring you the new generation of readers which will replace the old print subscribers who are dying out. Don’t worry if you don’t make a lot of money serving ads to those bloggers directly: they’re much more useful as traffic drivers in any case.

Interesting too are the questions of why the NY Times should be bought by Google.

Bush made Americans safer?

Thursday, June 26th, 2008

So claimed Powerline last month. Hm. I’m just catching up with some feeds!

2002
October: Diplomat Laurence Foley murdered in Jordan, in an operation planned, directed and financed by Zarqawi in Iraq, perhaps with the complicity of Saddam’s government.

2003
May: Suicide bombers killed 10 Americans, and killed and wounded many others, at housing compounds for westerners in Saudi Arabia.

October: More bombings of United States housing compounds in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia killed 26 and injured 160.

2004
There were no successful attacks inside the United States or against American interests abroad.

2005
There were no successful attacks inside the United States or against American interests abroad.

2006
There were no successful attacks inside the United States or against American interests abroad.

2007
There were no successful attacks inside the United States or against American interests abroad.

As Sadly No says…

2003
May: Suicide bombers killed 10 Americans, and killed and wounded many others, at housing compounds for westerners in Saudi Arabia.

October: More bombings of United States housing compounds in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia killed 26 and injured 160.

2004
There were no successful attacks inside the United States or against American interests abroad.
May, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: terrorists attack the offices of a Saudi oil company in Khobar, Saudi Arabia, take foreign oil workers hostage in a nearby residential compound, leaving 22 people dead including one American.

June, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: terrorists kidnap and execute Paul Johnson Jr., an American, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. 2 other Americans and BBC cameraman killed by gun attacks.

December, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: terrorists storm the U.S. consulate, killing 5 consulate employees. 4 terrorists were killed by Saudi security.

2005
There were no successful attacks inside the United States or against American interests abroad.
November, Amman, Jordan: Suicide bombers hit 3 American hotels, Radisson, Grand Hyatt, and Days Inn, in Amman, Jordan, killing 57. Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility.

2006
There were no successful attacks inside the United States or against American interests abroad.

March, Karachi, Pakistan: Four people, including a U.S. diplomat, were killed and 52 others were injured when a suicide bomber rammed the diplomat’s car outside the Karachi Marriott – yards away from the U.S. consulate.

2007
There were no successful attacks inside the United States or against American interests abroad.

January, Islamabad, Pakistan: A suicide bomber attacks Marriott Hotel.

January, Athens, Greece: A terrorist group fires anti-tank missile at U.S. Embassy.

2008
So far, there have been no successful attacks inside the United States or against American interests abroad.

January, Beirut, Lebanon: An explosion apparently targeting a U.S. Embassy vehicle convoy killed three civilians and injured at least 22 others, including several employees of the American Embassy in Lebanon.

Immigrants leave Ireland

Thursday, June 26th, 2008

The Wall Street Journal highlights the downturn here with a story on immigrants leaving. The statistics are pretty stark, and I like how the WSJ uses these and most Irish media don’t:

Citigroup economist Piotr Kalisz in Warsaw estimates that up to half of Polish émigrés to Western Europe since 2004 will return home in the next two years. In the U.K., half of an estimated one million Eastern European arrivals since 2004 have already left, says the London-based Institute for Public Policy Research in an April report.

Aiding the reversal: currency dynamics that have narrowed the East-West wage gap. Poland’s currency, the zloty, has benefited from the stability of EU membership, the growing economy, a steady flow of remittances from Polish emigrants and, more recently, Poland’s central bank raising its interest rates.

Andrej Golczewski, who arrived in Ireland in 2005 expecting to stay five years, at first earned a monthly salary for laying sheet metal that was equivalent to four times what he could earn at home in zloty, a boon in saving for his daughter’s university fees. But the euro has dropped 30% since May 2004, and with Polish construction wages rising, Mr. Golczewski left Ireland for home last month.

Similar dynamics are at work in the U.K., where a housing bust is threatening to tip the economy into recession and the pound is down 40% against the zloty since May 2004.

Jeff Jarvis at the Guardian and the future of journalism

Thursday, June 26th, 2008

Jeff links to two videos of him talking with staff at the Guardian about the future direction of the news organisation. As ever he is refreshing to watch, equally so as his writing, which I have been reading now for seven years.

Unfortunately many of my colleagues in the industry (in various firms) are slow to think about these changes, or the repercussions these changes will have for everyone working in the media in Ireland. I consider myself fortunate for not only having discovered Jeff’s writings early on (and indeed Dan Gillmor), but for the fact that I will myself shortly start my seventh year blogging. And I guess I am one of the relative few that made the transition from blogging to print media.

As for changing people’s habits in the old media world – I consider it a good day when I convert a colleague to Firefox 3 – nevermind Delicious, Magnolia, blogging, Twitter, RSS, Podcasts, or any of the other exciting things going on online.

Slowly but surely, I guess.

Jeff Part 1
Jeff Part 2

Exchange Traded Notes – tax treatment in Ireland

Thursday, June 26th, 2008

For the past several weeks I have been in correspondence with the Revenue in relation to their treatment of various investment instruments. I was particularly interested in more exotic ones like Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs) Futures Contracts, Options Contracts, CFDs and Spreadbetting.

Perhaps the most surprising result of my questions was that Revenue don’t know how to tax ETNs. They said:

Revenue haven’t encountered these products to date so therefore we haven’t expressed an opinion on their tax treatment.

I don’t know which is more surprising, that they haven’t encountered ETNs or that they have not expressed an opinion on their tax treatment. In the US, ETNs are treated for tax purposes as prepaid forward contracts.

For those who don’t know, here is a good general background to ETNs.

I suppose my next question to Revenue would be, if I profit from buying an ETN like the iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Total Return ETN, am I liable to any tax whatsoever?

In relation to Futures contracts the position is more clear:

Future contracts, within the meaning of section 607 (of the Consolidated Tax Act), are not chargeable assets. Accordingly capital gains are not chargeable and capital losses are not allowable. Gains on the disposal of future contracts and traded options, within the meaning of section 608 and which are regarded as investments for the purpose of that section, are not chargeable to CGT. Capital gains & losses on the disposal of future contracts and quoted options, other than in the above scenarios, are chargeable in the normal manner.

Similarly, gains and losses which occur in the course of a financial trade are taxable under income tax rules.

In the case of a futures contract dealt in or quoted on a stock exchange or futures exchange, the requirement that the security be delivered will be met if the person by whom the contract is made closes out the contract by
entering into a reciprocal and opposite contract on the exchange and settles through the exchange on a net payment or receipt basis.

In relation to options contracts:

Gains or losses on options contracts arising in the course of a trade are taxable as income.

I take this to mean that if I buy or sell an options contract before options expiry, the gain is classed as income as oppose to a capital gain.

CFDs are liable to CGT, Spreadbetting is not liable, although there could be an income liability if it becomes your primary source of income.

Hypnotic Brass Ensemble

Thursday, June 26th, 2008

I went to see these guys in the recently renovated Pavilion bar in Cork last night. Some really enjoyable music, and it is good to listen to some ‘real’ music, with real instruments.

This one got the crowd going:

Ella Fitzgerald: Summertime

Wednesday, June 25th, 2008

Magic.

How to store 6.5 billion images

Wednesday, June 25th, 2008

Jason Sobel the manager of infrastructure engineering at Facebook, gave a presentation at Stanford recently. He explains how Facebook efficiently stores ~6.5 billion images, in 4 or 5 sizes each, totalling 30 billion files, and a total of 540TB and serving 475,000 images per second at peak.

You can look at the presentation here.

If Facebook’s storage is 540TB. How big is Google’s? The mind boggles.

Via Slashdot.

Mars impact

Wednesday, June 25th, 2008

New Scientist details a pretty awesome collision in space:

At roughly 8500 by 10,600 kilometres across, it is nearly 15 times the area of the Moon’s South Pole-Aitken basin which, at 2500 kilometres in diameter, is the largest undisputed impact scar in the solar system.

The Mars crater was probably created by an object as large as 2700 kilometres across – over half of the diameter of Mercury. The effects of such an impact would have been catastrophic, says Andrews-Hanna.

“Within the basin you’d have had a magma ocean – it would have been easily several tens of kilometres deep,” he says. “Outside the basin you would have had a tremendous amount of ejecta raining back down on the surface.”

Feck.

The Big Picture

Wednesday, June 25th, 2008

Eamonn points to the rather excellent Big Picture blog over at the Boston Globe. However, as a long time reader of Barry Ritholtz’s blog, also called the Big Picture, I have to say my loyalties stay with Barry.

Incidentally, he isn’t too happy with other blogs ‘stealing’ the name of his finance oriented blog. The LA times also recently launched a blog with the same name.

Who next? An Irish paper?

Bezos and Twitter?

Wednesday, June 25th, 2008

Apparently. Jeff Bezo’s fund Bezos Expeditions has invested in Twitter, the micro-blogging platform. Maybe this will help with all that downtime.

Is Google Making Us Stupid?

Tuesday, June 24th, 2008

The Atlantic’s cover story by Nicholas Carr this month is really very good.

For me, as for others, the Net is becoming a universal medium, the conduit for most of the information that flows through my eyes and ears and into my mind. The advantages of having immediate access to such an incredibly rich store of information are many, and they’ve been widely described and duly applauded. “The perfect recall of silicon memory,” Wired’s Clive Thompson has written, “can be an enormous boon to thinking.” But that boon comes at a price. As the media theorist Marshall McLuhan pointed out in the 1960s, media are not just passive channels of information. They supply the stuff of thought, but they also shape the process of thought. And what the Net seems to be doing is chipping away my capacity for concentration and contemplation. My mind now expects to take in information the way the Net distributes it: in a swiftly moving stream of particles. Once I was a scuba diver in the sea of words. Now I zip along the surface like a guy on a Jet Ski.

Worth a look.

American Realism for a New World

Tuesday, June 24th, 2008

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice writes an essay in the latest edition of Foreign Affairs. It is essentially a follow up to a similar essay she wrote back in 2000.

I like this bit:

The United States did not overthrow Saddam to democratize the Middle East. It did so to remove a long-standing threat to international security. But the administration was conscious of the goal of democratization in the aftermath of liberation. We discussed the question of whether we should be satisfied with the end of Saddam’s rule and the rise of another strongman to replace him. The answer was no, and it was thus avowedly U.S. policy from the outset to try to support the Iraqis in building a democratic Iraq. It is important to remember that we did not overthrow Adolf Hitler to bring democracy to Germany either. But the United States believed that only a democratic Germany could ultimately anchor a lasting peace in Europe.

Hm. That’s not the way I remember it. And as I’m reading Scott McLellan’s book What Happened at the moment, I don’t think that’s the way he recalls it either. The argument to democritise the Middle East was often times used by the administration.

Overall, Rice is extremely positive about everything, concluding:

How to describe this disposition of ours? It is realism, of a sort. But it is more than that — what I have called our uniquely American realism. This makes us an incredibly impatient nation. We live in the future, not the past. We do not linger over our own history. This has led our nation to make mistakes in the past, and we will surely make more in the future. Still, it is our impatience to improve less-than-ideal situations and to accelerate the pace of change that leads to our most enduring achievements, at home and abroad.

At the same time, ironically, our uniquely American realism also makes us deeply patient. We understand how long and trying the course of democracy is. We acknowledge our birth defect, a constitution founded on a compromise that reduced my ancestors each to three-fifths of a man. Yet we are healing old wounds and living as one American people, and this shapes our engagement with the world. We support democracy not because we think ourselves perfect but because we know ourselves to be deeply imperfect. This gives us reason to be humble in our own endeavors and patient with the endeavors of others. We know that today’s headlines are rarely the same as history’s judgments.

An international order that reflects our values is the best guarantee of our enduring national interest, and America continues to have a unique opportunity to shape this outcome. Indeed, we already see glimpses of this better world. We see it in Kuwaiti women gaining the right to vote, in a provincial council meeting in Kirkuk, and in the improbable sight of the American president standing with democratically elected leaders in front of the flags of Afghanistan, Iraq, and the future state of Palestine. Shaping that world will be the work of a generation, but we have done such work before. And if we remain confident in the power of our values, we can succeed in such work again.

I guess she has to be positive.

Recession in Ireland

Monday, June 23rd, 2008

I should remind readers that the Economist Intelligence Unit in November 2007 said the following:

* Despite an estimated increase in the euro area inflation rate to 2.6% in October, the European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to increase interest rates above the current rate of 4%.
* The fiscal position is deteriorating, and this will place constraints on government expenditure. A deficit is expected by 2009.
* GDP growth is expected to slow sharply in 2008, mainly because of the ongoing slowdown in the previously overheated property sector. However, there is a real risk of recession.
* Unemployment is expected to rise over the outlook period, as the construction sector shrinks, but inflation and the current-account deficit will both fall.


I blogged about it back then as Ahern had recently said people who talk down the economy might as well kill themselves. Well, I guess those naysayers were correct. And Ahern was simply ignoring the problem. His successor has also ignored the problem. Now we have to deal with what the EIU forecast.

Anyone who has been watching sites like Treesdontgrowtothesky, DaftWatch or Irish Property Watch will see that the property market is in very serious doo-doo. And it is getting progressively worse. The number of houses coming on the market is rising, and the number of buyers out there is falling as a result of a return to normal lending conditions (yes we were living in a credit bubble for some time).

So what does all this mean for Ireland?

It’s the big R. And it will be with us for a while.

Update: The ESRI press release is available here.


The B/T account

Friday, June 20th, 2008

In case anyone is in any doubt as to why the Tribunal is so interested in the B/T account. There are a number of reasons.

The main reason I can discern is the volume of £5,000 lodgments.
The second reason is the two large other lodgments of £19,000 and £20,000.

For a moment, forget everything that Collins and Ahern have said and look coldly at the figures. Imagine that B/T stands for Bertie/Tim, as four PTSB staff have sworn to believe it to be.

£7,285.71, June 6, 1989 (PTSB)
£5,000, March 30, 1990 cheque (PTSB)
£5,000, April 27, 1991 (PTSB)
£5,000 February 24, 1992 cheque (PTSB)
£20,000, August 25, 1992 cheque (PTSB)
£5,000, January 26, 1993 cheque (PTSB)
£5,000, January 26, 1993 cheque (PTSB)
£20,000, October 26, 1994
£10,000, July 18, 1995

Now think of this.

In the early 1990s it was common practice for Frank Dunlop to pay retainers to politicians. These retainers sometimes consisted of £5,000. Once zoning was given by the council, politicians were then given “success fees”. These were larger than the retainers and were a reward for the successful zoning. The retainers were kept by politicians whether the zoning was successful or not.

After Dunlop had his day of clarity and began admitting giving bribes, he went back through his diary and scribbled out stuff. The tribunal refers to it as “obliteration”. We still don’t know quite why he did it, but thanks to the FBI, the Tribunal were able to unobliterate his diary entries.

Here is an example of a Dunlop diary entry he obliterated (Square brackets are me):

February 1, 1991

9 o’clock, John, Ken/Kevin, Paul

£75,000 “clause” or “close”

£50,000 development/build

£5,000 if nothing happens

Or this:

October 9, 1991, [RE CityWest]

8.30 Davys DS [David Shubotham]

BH [Brendan Hickey]

LL [Liam Lawlor]

Renew lands

Agreed schedule of payments with DS

£5,000 down

£20k following, £10k before Christmas

Oh yes, Shubotham. Remember he was involved in the Greencore share scam in 1993 when Ahern was selling of the State’s stake? The Davy guys sold the shares to themselves. Smart men.

Hence the interest in B/T. The amounts are curious. The name is curious. PTSB staff said it was Bertie/Tim. Tim Collins controlled the account. Bertie Ahern was on paper unconnected from the money. If I were a Tribunal, or any form of investigator, I too would be interested.

Oh and what was that cheque from January 1993? A cheque from Davy.