Archive for June, 2008

The Economist on the referendum

Friday, June 20th, 2008

This is not to say that everything in the treaty is bad. It would have improved the institutional machinery in Brussels, sorted out a muddle in foreign-policy making and brought in a fairer system of voting by EU members. But these are not the sorts of changes to set voters alight. And in truth, few EU governments or institutions are genuine enthusiasts for the treaty as such (Germany, which would gain voting weight, and the European Parliament, which would win extra powers, are two exceptions). Most simply wanted to get it out of the way and move on to issues more interesting than the institutional navel-gazing that has preoccupied the EU for too long.

After the Irish no, that is precisely what they should now do. The treaty should be buried so that the EU can focus on more urgent matters, such as energy, climate change, immigration, dealing with Russia and the EU’s own expansion. It is disingenuous to claim, as some do, that without Lisbon no further enlargement is possible. Each applicant needs an accession treaty that can include the institutional changes, such as new voting weights or extra parliamentary seats.

Needless to say, many of Europe’s leaders will instead look for ingenious ways to ignore or reverse the Irish decision. But to come up with a few declarations or protocols and ask the Irish to vote again would not just be contemptuous of democracy: the turnout and margin of defeat also suggest that it might fail. Nor can Ireland, legally or morally, be excluded from the EU. Attempts by diehards to forge a core group of countries that builds a United States of Europe would also founder because, outside Belgium and Luxembourg, there is no longer a serious appetite for a federal Europe.

Ireland is a small country, to be sure. But the EU is an inter-governmental organisation that needs a consensus to proceed. It is bogus to claim that 1m voters are thwarting the will of 495m Europeans by blocking this treaty. Referendums would have been lost in many other countries had their people been given a say. Voters have thrice said no to this mess of pottage. It is time their verdict was respected.

Agreed. The Treaty is dead.

John Waters fucks up – again

Friday, June 20th, 2008

Sigh. An awful rant today from Mr Waters. Will he ever learn?

A survey of 2,000 voters conducted by the European Commission immediately after the vote revealed that more than 70 per cent of those who voted No believed the treaty could easily be renegotiated.

This poll also found that many people who did not understand the treaty voted No; that the overwhelming majority of women voted No; that young people voted No by a margin of two to one; and that immigration (ie, xenophobic sentiment) was a significant factor in the No vote.

The entire basis for his argument is in EC poll that the Irish Times reported on Wednesday:

Why did you vote no? (only one option)

Dont understand /not familiar 40%

Protect Irish identity 20%

Dont trust politicians/Govt policies 17%

Protect neutrality 10%

Keep commissioner 10%

Protect tax system 8%

Which as Dublin Opinion reported, is equal to 105%. Waters also says: “that young people voted No by a margin of two to one”. Yet his own paper reported:

Young people between the age of 15 and 29 voted against the treaty by a factor of two to one, a finding that is labelled as “very serious” in an explanation of the referendum result prepared for commission president José Manuel Barroso.

Very serious indeed, Mr Barroso. Especially since people below the age of 18 can’t vote. And very serious too for Mr Waters.

There is a reason why children are prohibited from voting, and this goes also to the heart of why adults are expected to treat the franchise with solemnity.

Oh the irony.

It is a comfort that these iron men who built this society were not around to witness this latest exercise in self-regarding ignorance by the most pampered, narcissistic and vacuous generation ever to enter an Irish polling booth.

Cough. Are these the 15-17 year olds? From a Commission poll that posed a question that couldn’t have given a negative answer about the direction of Europe itself?

His best line is arguing that the Lisbon Treaty referendum is:

arguably the most disgraceful episode in the history of Irish democratic procedures.

Here’s the thing Mr Waters. Let’s imagine we had voted yes. And let’s imagine the ratio of yes to no was exactly reversed, the turnout was the same, and the campaigns were identical.

Would you be arguing now that it was a great day for Irish democracy that we voted for a proposal we did not understand? Would you be lamenting the yes voters for not understanding the treaty? Would you cast aside their democratic will and call for a revote on your assumption, on the basis of a poll conducted by a vested interest and given to the media via the Taoiseach’s office, that the yes side simply did not understand the treaty?

Lisbon

Thursday, June 19th, 2008

It is clear that the decision has already been taken: another referendum. Everything else is just paying lip service to “respecting” Ireland’s vote.

Bord na gCon exclusive

Tuesday, June 17th, 2008

Myself and Anthony have it from a very reliable source that the person at the centre of the Bord na gCon report is a Mr Dan Lannon. We have no further details, except to say that the report states Mr Lannon has “extensive experience” in the building industry.

Even more strangely, when Anthony contacted the C&AG’s office, he asked for the man’s name. On the phone they replied:

“No, we went and enquired and, we know who he is, just can’t contact him.”

So they wrote a report without contacting the central figure in the scandal.

Podcast 2

Sunday, June 15th, 2008

Myself and Anthony put together another brief podcast. This time we discuss the publication of the Comptroller and Auditor General’s report into the Bord na gCon scandal.

The report is available here. RTE report it here.

The report was released the day before polling day in the Lisbon referendum. Interesting tactic.

Comments welcome.

Update: We have learned that the name of the overseer is Mr Dan Lannon.

[display_podcast]

Conscription? Ya wha?

Friday, June 13th, 2008

Nowhere during the campaign from either the Yes or No side have I heard mention of army conscription. And I watched most TV debates and listened to most radio debates.

Yet today I’ve heard the word used multiple times by Government ministers. Why? Are they preparing the ground for a Nice 2 style second referendum, whereby the chief concern was believed to be neutrality?

Watch how government ministers speak very closely over the coming days.

The Nos have it?

Friday, June 13th, 2008

Things look decidedly close for Lisbon. I voted No myself.

Stalking

Wednesday, June 11th, 2008

IMG_0522

Man that lake had a lot of fish.

I’m voting Republican

Wednesday, June 11th, 2008

A very well made video:

3G iPhone

Monday, June 9th, 2008

It has arrived. Black plastic back… hmm. Flush headphone jack. Thinner. A-GPS. Much as expected. It looks nice.

Battery life seems to have been a big deal, huge improvements.

Property prices in Wexford

Sunday, June 8th, 2008

Some staggering statistics:

Gorey rural area (including town)

Population (2006): 25,808
Properties listed for sale on Daft: 963

Enniscorthy rural area (including town)

Population (2006): 33,111
Properties listed for sale on Daft: 594

Just by way of comparison:

Cork city

Population (2006): 119,143
Properties listed for sale on Daft: 1,080 (City and suburbs)

Cork has over four times the population of Gorey, yet almost the same number of houses listed for sale.

I guess it’s all the buy-to-letters from Dublin who bought in Gorey? Or is the cost of petrol killing the commuters that bought there? Seems like Gorey is in serious trouble.

In order for the Gorey properties to sell, prices will have to fall. By a huge margin.

Hmm

Friday, June 6th, 2008

In May 1996, when An Bord Pleanala gave the go-ahead to the Sonas Consortium building a casino in the Phoenix park, Taoiseach Brian Cowen, then a back bench TD from Offaly, attended a celebration party at the Conrad Hotel hosted by Robert White – the close associate of Bertie Ahern.

White was a director of Sonas. PJ Mara as a public relations consultant for the project. Norman Turner was chief executive.

And don’t forget. The plan was shot down on June 18, 1996, because the Rainbow Coalition shot it down. They wouldn’t bring in the gambling legislation and after a Task Force report, the Cabinet decided against the project.

Harry Shiels, chairman of the West Dublin Action Group opposing the plan said they were pleased with the outcome. “We met John Bruton, Proinsias De Rossa, Ruairi Quinn, Hugh Coveney and other senior politicans,” he said. “We also met Mary Harney and Bertie Ahern. But we got no support from Mr Ahern on the issue, and I would be worried that, if Fianna Fail were in power, it many have been a different story.”

Ahern has always said he never backed the project. How odd.

It’s a shame it never went ahead, Ahern would have got his dream of a 63,000 seater stadium, the one thing he said he regretted not doing on his resignation.

Did you know (2)

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

In May 1993 when Bertie Ahern was Minister for Finance there was a very curious scandal.

The Government sold its 30.4% stake in Greencore to investors for £70m. £100m was raised around the same time from a sale of the Government’s stake in Irish Life.

Greencore management had supported the idea of selling shares to US investors Arther Daniels Midland, but a decision was later taken by Ahern to sell the shares on the open market, and British and Irish institutions. It was said that Ahern could not convince his cabinet colleagues (the Labour ones) of the merits of the ADM investment.

The 25.4 million shares were placed on the stock market by Davy Stockbrokers.

But a couple of weeks later, it emerged that the Directors of Davy had themselves bought shares in Greencore to the tune of £19m. Four companies directly associated with Davy and four of its directors acquired 4.5m shares of Greencore at a cost of £12.4m. A further 2.5m shares worth £6.9m were held on their behalf by British investment firm SG Warburg.

Two million more shares were sold to an account in Bank of Ireland Private Bannking held by three Davy directors – Brian Davy, Kyran McLaughlin and Tony Garry. Another two million were sold to Gandon, a financial services firm in which Mr McLaughlin, Mr Davy and Mr David Shubotham have a combined 18% stake. Smaller amounts were sold to Corder investments a company owned by Mr McLaughlin and to a Davy pension fund.

Mc McLaughlin denied suggestions that the arrangement with Warburg constituted any sort of a share-support operation, or that Warburg had covertly warehoused the Greencore shares on behalf of Davy.

As a result of the scandal, the ISE suspended Greencore shares, which had been placed the previous Friday at 275p. Half of the 16 British instituional investors pulled out after the scandal. The ISE said the market was misled by the share sale announcements made by Greencore and the Department of Finance. Albert Reynolds even threatened that Davy would never again be involved in a Government share sale. The Davy Directors refused to resign as a result of the scandal.

See the Oireachtas debate.

Bank of Ireland (who owned Davy) later agreed to aquire 10m shares in of the Government’s stake, should the shares go unsold.

Earlier that year, in January 1993, a cheque for £5,000 from Davy Stockbrokers was lodged into the B/T account, sworn by four bank officials as standing for the “Bertie/Tim account”.

Did you know… bonus.

At the very same time as this scandal the Broadcasting Authority (Amendment) Bill was making its way through the Dail. The bill removed the advertising cap put on RTE by Minister Ray Burke in 1990.

It was later found that Burke had taken bribes to introduce that legislation.

Did you know…

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Miriam Ahern (nee Kelly), former wife of Bertie Ahern, was a bank clerk when they met in the 1960s. They married on Ahern’s 24th birthday in 1975. She comes from a family of 13 in Dublin Central, and all are fervent FF supporters and campaigned on his behalf.

(Irish Times, July 12, 1984)

Trying to hang her

Wednesday, June 4th, 2008

Because, Mr. O’Neill, just to be very straight about it. Reading something on the 8th, I having to deal with in the one week the cabinet meeting, deal with the Dail, the questions and answers in the Dail, deal with a full week in the Dail. Then deal with a European Council where you get monstrous briefs over the weekend and then go to America where I went to Stanford and made a major speech to 2,500 people and then do my usual. I just did not have time. And before I got back you, with your usual efficiency and with your large amount of staff and your huge legal team had Grainne Carruth in here trying to hang her. So that’s it if you want the answer. So what I said to Mr. Dobson quite frankly, was at the very mildest a term —

And so Ahern tried to explain his evidence before PTSB found he had sterling, and after. I went to see him in action in Dublin today. To be blunt, Ahern’s story stunk of horse shit.

Ahern was asked earlier this year about Carruth in his interview with Dobbo, and the tribunal was interested in one remark.

The particular bit the Tribunal was interested in was where Ahern talks about her evidence that she had made sterling lodgments to his and his daughters’ accounts (she says she can’t remember doing it though). He says he didn’t have a chance to tell the Tribunal about the source of the sterling, because he was too busy.

But the Tribunal argued that Ahern was informed of the sterling lodgments early in March, and he had plenty of opportunity to explain them. Ahern said yes, he was made aware of the sterling lodgments, but had no time to explain them to the Tribunal – which potentially would have saved Carruth from giving evidence at all.

Then, if his whole story was not already bizarre, Ahern went further. The sterling Carruth had lodged was an accumulation of salary cheques. But he had asked his friend Tim Kilroe (now dead, conveniently), to change into sterling for him. This had ended up being £15-17k stg in cash in his safe, which was then later lodged. Though Ahern can’t remember asking anyone to lodge it. He can’t even remember having the money at all. Besides that he also placed bets on horses – including winning £8,000 on two horses in 1996. Money later lodged to his daughters’ accounts.

SO the main conflict is this. Ahern said last year that during the time he had no bank account (1987-1993), he had saved cash of about £50,000 punts. He began lodging these savings in late 1993 and in 1994 once he had bank accounts. In January 1994, he opened a PTSB account lodging money to it then, and later over the year. He told the tribunal that these lodgments were from salary, and importantly contemporaneous salary cheques. That is, these lodgments were from money he was earning in 1994. That the accumulated savings prior to 1994 totalled £50,000.

But now he has changed his story. Because PTSB have found that the lodgments were in sterling, Ahern has had to adapt his story. He says its because he forgot about the sterling. It’s more likely because he didn’t envisage documentary evidence emerging to show sterling lodgments.

So now he says he had other savings prior to opening his bank accounts. £15-17k sterling was ‘saved’ from his salary between 1990 and 1993, he says. That is on top of the £50k he already told the tribunal about. This sterling was held in cash in his safe, and would be dipped into for trips to England. But he had since forgotten he had so much sterling cash. And forgot ever lodging any to PTSB.

Another strange story was that one of the reasons he kept so much sterling cash in the 1990-1993 period was because he was thinking of investing in a property in Salford, Manchester, but later changed his mind. This was at a time when he said he had no money, and needed a digout from friends in late 1993. So why did he need a digout out from friends in 1993 to pay legal fees if he had over £70,000 at his disposal? Even if we accept £20,000 of that was earmarked for his daughters it still leaves us wondering why he needed a digout to pay legal fees, and later a digout to help with buying a house.

Truly bizarre, but I guess it’s par for the course.

Ahern looked the worse for wear. He is on the backfoot, and the questioning buildup to a crescendo will continue tomorrow.