Gavin's Blog

It seems to be this has been the biggest question of the war. In general, Western media have attributed blame to Saakashvili for starting an assault on Tshinvali. They then conclude that this was a massive miscalculation on his part. But we have no evidence either way of who fired first, or whether Georgia was essentially provoked.

In this week’s edition, The Economist makes a stab at trying to say who did start it.

In early August Georgian and South Ossetian separatists exchanged fire and explosive attacks. South Ossetia blew up a truck carrying Georgian policemen and attacked Georgian villages; Georgia fired back at the capital of South Ossetia, Tskhinvali. On August 7th Georgian and South Ossetian officials were due to have direct talks facilitated by a Russian diplomat. But according to Temur Iakobashvili, a Georgian minister, the Russian diplomat never turned up.

What happened next is less clear. Russia claims that Mr Saakashvili treacherously broke a unilateral ceasefire he had just announced, ordering a massive offensive on Tskhinvali, ethnically cleansing South Ossetian villages and killing as many as 2,000 people. According to the Georgians, the ceasefire was broken from the South Ossetian side. However, what triggered the Georgian response, says Mr Saakashvili, was the movement of Russian troops through the Roki tunnel that connects South Ossetia to Russia. Matthew Bryza, an official at the State Department, says he was woken at 2am on August 7th to be told that the Georgians were lifting the ceasefire. “I tried to persuade them not to do it,” he says.

That same night, Georgia started to shell and invade Tskhinvali. Then the Russian army moved in—the same troops that had taken part in the military exercise a month earlier. The picture Russia presented to the world seemed clear: Georgia was a reckless and dangerous aggressor and Russia had an obligation, as a peacekeeper in the region, to protect the victims.

Russia’s response was predictable. One thing which almost all observers agree on is that Mr Saakashvili made a catastrophic mistake by walking into the Russian trap. As Carl Bildt, Sweden’s foreign minister, puts it: “When you have a choice between doing nothing and doing a stupid thing, it is better to do nothing.” But Mr Saakashvili, a compulsive risk-taker, did the second. Even now he is defiant: if the clock were turned back, he says his response would be the same. “Any Georgian government that would have done differently would have fallen immediately,” he says.

As confusion reigns about what exactly the Russians are doing in Georgia, the situation no longer looks as stable at it did yesterday. So Bush has taken the first option I indicated, “he could escalate the stakes by sending a US fleet to the Eastern Mediterranean or the Black Sea”.

President Bush also said U.S. Defense Robert Gates will oversee a “vigorous and ongoing” humanitarian mission to Georgia involving aircraft and Naval forces. It was not immediately clear when the mission will begin.

Of course this is being done under the guise, only perhaps partially true, that it is for humanitarian reasons ships are being sent to the region. The message to Russia though is clear, whether the US navy and air force are in the region for humanitarian reasons or not is irrelevant. The fact is, they will be in the region.

It sends a clear message of American interest and capability, without increasing tensions to any huge degree. The US Navy were probably already given orders to sail to the region, and will likely get there soon, most likely a task force from the Sixth Fleet. But we will have to wait and see what form any military deployment takes.

There are a huge amount of conflicting reports about what exactly Russian troops are doing in Georgia. AP is reporting that “Troops waved at journalists and one soldier jokingly shouted to a photographer: “Come with us, beauty, we’re going to Tbilisi!”

Georgian and Russian officials appear to be denying it is a move towards Tbilisi. At last report, Russian troops were 12 miles from the capital.

If the EU is sending in troops peacekeepers, then it would want to do so soon.

Reading between the lines this statement is has a number of consequences. My reading of what he said is this: Threatening, bombing or taking Tbilisi International Airport (giving away some American, likely satellite, intelligence) is a Rubicon moment. If Russian forces act against the airport, it will be taken as crossing the Rubicon. Bush made no mention of likely consequences, and why should he?… it would be giving away his hand.

The message to Putin was clear: Withdraw, do not attack the airport, do not overthrow the Georgian government. Accept the EU-brokered ceasefire. Leaving the consequences of Russian rejection to the imagination is an entirely natural response.

The latest reports indicate that Russian forces have captured the Georgian airbase at Senaki, in Georgia proper. We have to ask why Russia is now pushing on, and what its strategy may be. We also have to question the media’s rather curious comparisons between Russia’s conventional military power, and that of Georgia.

Let’s take the second question first. The media have been making wildly odd comparisons between Russia’s military and that of Georgia. It is hardly valid to compare the two. We knew before the conflict began that Russia has one of the largest militaries in the world, and has recently been undergoing something of a revival under Putin. Georgia’s conventional forces are no match, and never were.

But even a cursory look at the CIA factbook page would tell an alternative story. The Russians face serious problems if they attempt to prolong the conflict. First is the Caucuses mountains themselves, second is the Georgian winter, third is the simple fact of almost 1,200,000 Georgian men between the ages of 16-49 who can fight. Even reducing this figure to men who have received the compulsory 18 months military service would still leave several hundred thousand men, fighting with the simple motive of defending their homeland. There is also the fact that Georgian households invariably have one or two assault weapons each, in what is by Western European standards a rather militarised society. If worse comes to worse, these are men willing to fight, who know the territory and how to use it. A guerilla war would be easily fought by Georgia, and prove hugely taxing on Russian forces in the region. As StragetyPage notes:

Until a few years ago the “reserves” constituted the entire body of conscripts discharged over the past 15 years. But this pool, of about 250,000 men, was just that, a pool. The “reservists” were not subject to periodic refresher training, and so no more than perhaps 10 percent of them could be considered useful in the event of activation. Beginning four years ago, Georgia instituted a more rigorous reserve training program. An active reserve has been created, which apparently numbers over 10,000 men, and is expected to grow to as many as 100,000 over the next few years, as conscripts (drafted at 18 to 18-24 months) leave active service, and enter 5-10 years of reserve duty.

While Georgia doesn’t have the money for modern equipment (it’s stuff is mostly Russian Cold War vintage), it does have enough professional soldiers from the old Red Army, and a military tradition going back centuries. Much to the discomfort of Russia, the United States has been supplying Georgia with military trainers and some equipment. Partly, this is in response to Georgian help in Iraq. Georgia first sent 800 peacekeepers to Iraq, and began increasing that force. Currently there are 2,000 Georgian troops in Iraq, where they obtain useful operational experience.

That apart, Russia is asking for trouble if it continues on its current path. There is a reason the Russian Empire could never control Georgia, and a reason the Russian language is not the first one. Geography is one of the main reasons, the Georgian people are another.

So what is Russia doing? Demonstrating its new found military strength. Taking no shit from Georgia. Ignoring the international community. Using the language of its US: “We bombed Gori because the Georgian forces were using civilian infrastructure as cover to launch attacks on us.”, “Our peace enforcement mission is seeking to protect Ossetians…”. And this is how it is played to the Russian population. No doubt many Russians are delighted at this new found military projection of power.

But will Russia escalate it to a point, and then wait and see, or will it push on? It’s hard to say. To me it seems they have achieved whatever objectives they set out to attain, and any further push into Georgia would be counter productive.

Read: Zbigniew Brzezinski’s interview in HuffPo.

Civil Georgia has been under cyber attack, it has now moved to blogspot.

Charlie Whitaker has a similar roundup to myself.

Steve has good links and analysis here and here.

Oh and have a look through my Caucasian Politics archive, I have posts on Ossetia and Abkhazia going back four years.

Russia-Georgia is a Georgian blog about the conflict.

Russia has bombed the town of Gori, one close to the hearts of every Georgian because of its connection to Soso Dzhugashvili (Stalin). As I said yesterday, the next 24 hours would define how things go. The escalation by Russia has confirmed that.

I had a long chat with Cian last night where we talked about what next for Saakashvili. We tried to come up with what might happen over the coming days. I argued that Saakashvili has long wanted Ossetia back in Georgian control and it appeared that he tried to take it, and miscalculated on the Russian response. He is trying to use the language of diplomacy, while at the same time mobilising the country.

But the best he can hope for is a return to the status quo. George Bush iterated that position today. Saakashvili’s most recent calls for a ceasefire hints at his willingness to return to that status quo.

Alternatively Russian troops will stay within the borders of South Ossetia, with a high level of UN involvement from here on. Since the stakes are now much higher, Saakashvili can assume there will be greater international attention for the problem, confirmed by Poland calling for an emergency EU meeting.

With Abkhazia now becoming a feature of the conflict though, it will become increasingly difficult to step back from the brink. The next few days are critical, if international pressure is not put on both sides to stop the escalation in violence then it could get out of control. Georgians are fiercely proud and nationalistic people, and if Russia provokes its general populace it could lead to a very violent conflict.

Whatever about the might of the Russian military machine, Russia will be loathe to get bogged down in Georgia, it would be a fight that would be worth little, and lead to high financial cost and loss of life.

The international community appears relatively quiet thus far, and this is dangerous. Hostilities must cease within the next few days, or the chance for a return to the status quo will be lost.

Here is a US military video detailing the training of Georgian forces in recent years:

Firstly, the conflict and how it started. The Georgians are saying Russia launched a “full scale invasion”. Russia is saying Ossetia is defending itself against Georgian aggression. Who do I believe right now? Georgia. The volume of Russian units entering Georgia is significant and pre-planned. It’s also mid August, a perfect time for action given the intensity of the Georgian winter in the northern mountains. The news wires simply report that Georgia tried to retake the whole province, and Russia reacted.

Saakashvili was just on Bloomberg, his “favourite channel”, explaining the situation. Georgia has shot down “eight Russian planes” (AP say two). Georgia is now in full scale defensive mode. He said it is mobilising its entire armed forces in defence, and that the simple situation is that Georgia is defending herself. Saakashvili looked rattled to say the least. Georgia will always say it is defending its territory when it comes to Ossetia, because it sees the province as its own. So Russian operations within Ossetia are considered aggressive by default.

Russia is playing the usual game. Putin is saying he’s very sad that Georgia has started a conflict on the day of the start of the Olympics, a day “when guns should be silent”. The timing is certainly curious, the news agenda is directed at China today of all days. If it had been any other day, Georgia would have gotten all the coverage.

But just going on the television pictures of Russian Frogfoot (which incidentally are manufactured in Georgia), BMP-2/3, BTR-60s fighting and entering Ossetia, this was well planned. The conflict has been going on for some days, but it has just recently escalated. There are also pictures of large convoys of Russian T-80s entering Ossetia.

Apparently the Georgians have captured the capital of Ossetia, Tskhinvali, and Russian troops are going in that direction.

Medvedev is saying the “Georgian assault” is a violation of international law. Saakashvili is saying the same about Russia. Of course the Russians are also saying the US is behind the conflict.

Who do you trust though? Neither of them really, but the rhetoric of Russia strikes me as disingenuous at the least. Georgia’s story seems more plausible.

What happens next? Russia is pouring tanks and troops into Ossetia, and Georgia is mobilising its entire armed forces. Anything could happen.

Worst case? The entire caucuses, a melting pot of ethnic tensions is plunged into conflict. As you can see from this map, it is a mess of various rival ethnic groups. Some of the conflicting borders don’t feature on this map either.

Update 13.16: Russia is reported to be bombing an airbase just outside Tblisi. If true, it means we are in a de facto state of war.

Update: 13.17: Saakashvhili is on CNN saying that “this is the worst nightmare one can encounter”, and Russia is refusing to enter talks. Troops have been amassing at the border for 3 or 4 months, undertaking military exercises, and have now decided to cross the border. What should the West do now? “Wake up!”. It is interesting to note he is flanked by the Georgian flag on one side and the European flag on the other. He is even pointing out the timing of the attack, to coincide the Olympics. He denies trying to retake South Ossetia. “We would be suicidal to initiate anything on our own.” “Last night Russian APCs crossed the border…”. What would you ask Bush to do? “We are in the same situation Finland was in 1939, same as Afghanistan in 1979…”

13.41: It is interesting to watch the wire agencies catch up with this story. I timed the pictures from Russia Today of T-80 columns entering Ossetia, it took about 45 mins for news agencies to realise Russia was essentially invading.

14.25: I just got off the phone with a Georgian friend. He is a critic of Saakashvili and blames him entirely for the escalation. He reckons he miscalculated in an effort to retake South Ossetia and that Russia is reacting naturally to the situation. By his estimation the conflict will die down within days, if not hours, as Georgia gets punished for its misbehaviour. “It all depends on what happens in the next 24 hours,” he said. He lambasted Saakashvili for breaking his own ceasefire this morning.

14.52: Richard Holbrooke is on BBC News, in hawkish terms. “This is a very sad day for the Western alliance.” He said it amounted to the annexation of South Ossetia. He also pointed out that Russia make this opportunity to move on the other region, Abkhazia (That region is a far more close to the hearts of Georgians than Ossetia. The war in 1993 was hard fought in Abkhazia). “The future of Russia’s relations with the West are involved, this is a very big deal.”

15.01: The Economist, which has some of the best coverage of Georgian affairs, has an update.

The New York Times reports here.

15.17: Reports of 100s of civilians killed. This could easily get out of hand. It’s important to remember that just about every household in Georgia have at least one AK-47, and they are not afraid to use them.

15.38: Russia Today (very very biased), in quotes from Russian officials, are using words like “genocide” and “ethnic cleansing”. They are also reporting 1,000 civilians killed. This rhetoric will only fuel things.

15.43: Saakashvili is on BBC News. Rice called him “several times”. Sarkozy called him. “Sarkozy had a tough conversation with Vladimir Putin.”

Saakashvili using words like annexation. “Georgia wants peace and development, the last thing we need is trouble.” “If we get attacked, democracies have to defend itself (sic)”. Points to Holbrooke’s words earlier, says he understands the situation. “It is not about us anymore”… it is about freedom and democracy.

18.42: Georgia has said they are withdrawing 1,000 troops from Iraq to redeploy in Georgia. They say they now control most of South Ossetia. Up to 30 Georgian troops have been killed.

22.19: Bloomberg are reporting that Putin has said “war has started”. There are reports of heavy street fighting in the Ossetian capital. Georgia is saying civilian infrastructure is being bombed.