The Economist presents a pretty stark view of the world economy with such gems as:
Unemployment in the euro area is 8.9%; in Germany, France and Spain it is in double digits. Manufacturing in the single-currency zone has stalled. In its latest World Economic Outlook, published this week, the IMF, like other forecasters before it, slashed its forecast for euro-area GDP growth this year, to 1.6%. The world economy’s other weak link, Japan, faltered half-way through 2004 and despite the odd spark has not yet sputtered into life again. Rising oil prices have helped neither of these giant weaklings.
Even in America, where the strength of the expansion has consistently surprised economists, there are nascent signs of slowdown and worries about oil. With job growth scarcely topping 100,000, the March employment report was much weaker than expected. Retail sales grew by only 0.3% (month-on-month) in March, less than half of what analysts had expected, suggesting that record petrol prices were wearing holes in consumers’ pockets.
According to statistics released on April 12th, America’s monthly trade deficit reached a record $61 billion in February (see chart). The climb in oil prices may mean another record in March—although much of February’s increase reflected sharp growth in non-oil imports, which were 16% higher than in February 2004.
Brad Setser, a former Treasury official who is now at Roubini Global Economics, an economic-analysis firm, reckons that if non-oil import growth continues at its recent pace and the oil price stays over $50 a barrel, America’s annual trade deficit would reach nearly $800 billion by the end of the year. That said, the figure may not get that high, because $50 oil ought to dampen American consumer demand and hence import growth.
But they conclude:
It is possible to be sanguine about America’s ever more colossal deficits, just as it is about oil. Certainly, the doomsday scenarios of a dollar crash or a hard landing for the American economy are not in sight. America has had little trouble attracting the necessary capital to fund its soaring deficits. Though Asia’s central banks are still big purchasers, they are not the only ones. Thanks to soaring prices, oil exporters have been building up their surpluses. Russia’s foreign-exchange reserves, for instance, are now over $130 billion. Many of these oil exporters are choosing dollar assets. The dollar has strengthened since the beginning of 2005 and long-term interest rates remain remarkably low.
This calm may explain why the world’s finance ministers have done so little to wean themselves off their addiction to American-led growth and why they will spend most of their time in Washington fretting about oil. That is a pity, for while the oil price seems to be the most imminent risk, the size and rate of growth of the global imbalances are the real reason to worry. If the world economy continues on autopilot, those imbalances are set to increase. And you do not need to be a Cassandra to predict that, eventually, they will create a nasty problem.
I guess we will have to see how things pan out in the coming months.