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Politicus: Fischer's shifting vision of Europe's grand future: John Vinocur

John Vinocur as usual with some great insight into European politics. Crucially he points out that Joschka Fischer has some curious views on the future of the EU. More and more I see this kind of language coming from the EU, and to be blunt I think it’s a very very bad thing.

Basically, Fischer has said that an EU of 25 members must now reach a third strategic dimension beyond what he defines as the two initial historic and pragmatic phases of its development. He calls for an EU that is a “strategic” entity, a continental-type power comparable to the United States, India, China or Russia, able to punch its weight in confronting threats to stability in the world.

This involves dumping as outdated Fischer’s earlier idea of an expanded EU led by small pioneer groups. And it also means opening the way for the EU’s rapid inclusion of Turkey, which Fischer says has “a bridging function” between Europe and Islam in an ominously described “structure of conflict of the 21st century.”

Close ally of Chirac guilty in jobs case

Time to catch up on all these things I meant to post…

Former Prime Minister of France, Alain Juppe, found guilty of illegal party financing of a fake jobs plan. He could be barred from running for President in 2007.

Apparently Irish politicians can’t be barred from public service due to constiutional requirements – I wonder if that is the case.

Another Irish think-tank?

Frank points to the Popperian Irish think-tank, the Open Republic. I never knew Ireland had many think-tanks, it sounds good, and they are calling for papers! Hm.

Popper is a fascinating philosopher. I had a great time reading Conjectures and Refutations a few years back, and I picked up the Open Society and It’s Enemies Volume 1 just before Christmas. I will be starting it once I’ve finished Fukuyama.

Odd European out

The Economist had some interesting stories last week – among them a very interesting one on Germany’s economy, and another on the EU’s relationship with Russia. The one on Russia is available free here.

As for Germany the Economist estimates some interesting figures.

Germany used to be one of Europe’s richest nations. In the late 1980s its GDP per head was 20% higher than the average of the European Union. But estimates by the Economist suggest that Germany’s GDP per head fell 1%below the EU average last year (measured at purchasing-power parity, to take account of differences in prices). Only four of the EU’s 15 members now have a lower income per head.

Amazing stuff. The model of the Germany economy can no longer be sustained given its ageing population and its somewhat outdated welfare system. But is the same true for the rest of Europe? We always hear about how the US economy is always outperforming Europe – but no, read this:

Yet in many ways Europe excluding Germany looks a bit like America. For example, over the past decade GDP per head in the rest of the EU grew by an average of 2.3% – even faster than America’s 2.1% average growth. European business are often accused if being inefficient and unprofitable, hobbled by high wage costs and red tape. Yet a new study by Goldman Sachs finds that, while corporate America’s rate of return on capital is twice that in Germany, the rate of return in the rest of the EU is even higher. And though it is true that European labour markets are in general less flexible than America’s, Europe outside of Germany has been creating just as many jobs as America. Over the past decade, employment has risen by an average of only 0.2% a year in Germany, against a rate of 1.3% a year in the rest of the EU, exactly the same pace of increase as in America.

What? The Economist praising the rest of Europe? Fascinating figures though. C’mon Germany, get your ass in gear!

Enlargement could spell the end of the EU

A stark warning from Richard North, author of The Castle of Lies: Why Britain Must Get Out of Europe and former research director for the Europe of Democracies and Diversities Group in the European Parliament.

If, against all the odds, the Constitution does go ahead, it would be like locking down the lid on a pressure cooker and sealing off the safety valve. The break-up might take a little longer, but it will be explosive when it comes, leaving, as we write in our book, “a wasteland from which it will take many years for the people of Europe to emerge.”


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