So the Pentagon is taking global warming seriously? I have been keeping an eye out for stories related to this issue – I remember Frank saying that a large number scientists don’t believe global warming is happening – I just wonder what percentage of the scientific community believes it. How many scientists are there in the world anyway?
It seems this article created quite a bit of controversy. Stephen Pollard has picked it up here.
Looks like the Observer played this one up just a bit.
as a scientist, I can assure you that most (and I mean 99%) of scientists believe in some form of global warming and climate change predictions. The caveat is that those predictions can vary widely and the focus of many of our research programs (including mine) is to better ellucidate (big word for me) the interactions within the complex feedback system of the ocean-ice-atmosphere-biosphere system.
Scientists are always caught between the environmentalists and the politicians, we deal with non-linear systems and it is very tough to predict the future, except that there will be change. Whether that change will be locally beneficial or harmful is hard to know.
anyone who says that many scientists do not believe in global warming is misrepresenting the belief of the scientific community as a whole. I’ve heard many dissenting opinions on what will happen, but no one is denying the data showing the unprecedented rise in the rate of CO2 production in the atmosphere due to anthropogenic inputs.
If you believe that this accelerated rate is not harmful, then that’s fine, it’s a view that is shared by a minority of scientists (global warming/climate change is happening but it will all be okay) but I hate that so many people think that there’s this mythical band of scientists who are denying the observed data which support climate change.
Trish, I was under the impression that the consensus was that global warming was happening (although this report [http://www.oism.org/oism/s32p31.htm] says otherwise), but that the cause was less certain. You say “no one is denying the data showing the unprecedented rise in the rate of CO2 production in the atmosphere due to anthropogenic inputs”, but isn’t it possible the Earth is warming entirely due to natural phenomena?
Any occasion on which the United States concedes that global warming might have some negative effect is to be welcomed with open arms. Post-Kyoto, the United States is still the single greatest barrier to environmental reform – anything which leads the States to accept responsibility for its pollutant output, even this empty-headed theorising on possible Doomsday scenarios, can only be described as a good thing.
The posts above are correct in that predictions of climate change do vary widely. But (and excuse a possible inaccuracy here) I seem to recall that the last Ice Age was precipitated by a change of only ten degrees celsius in a hundred year period. We’re already halfway there.
This is an interesting debate…I will be posting these thoughts and more on another post, and bring in more articles, and perhaps more bloggers.
Niall, I can’t help thinking that if things have progressed as much as you claim then there is little point in trying to implement Kyoto. It’s too late. Better we invest in planning and technologies that we will be able to use to minimize the coming ice age or whatever.
Opposition to Kyoto does not necessarily mean that you don’t take the possibility of climate change seriously. What it means is that the costs of Kyoto given the benefits (allowing for risk analysis) are too great.
If implementing Kyoto will seriously weaken American competitiveness compared with China (or India or whomever) while providing only theoretical benefits for a problem that may or may not arise then that’s too big a risk to take. Too many people in the west take their freedoms for granted without ever acknowledging that those freedoms are an off-shoot of western economic superiority.
Kyoto undermines that superiority and hands an advantage to those (China especially) who do not believe in individual liberty.
The Pentagon’s weather nightmare is just exaggerated in the new Ice Age movie. One great thing about sci fi movies…they use exaggeration to bring the average person up to speed about prevailing scientific dialogue. The following two links give more background on the scientific premise for the movie. You will notice that several of the findings, or conclusions, of last Fall’s government report are alluded to in the movie.
HOW IT WILL AFFECT THE AVERAGE PERSON:
http://english.pravda.ru/mailbox/22/98/386/12235_GM.html
THE GOVERNMENT REPORT:
http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:O887FvgyZCsJ:www.stopesso.com/campaign/Pentagon.doc++ice+age+is+coming+2010-2020&hl=en&ie=UTF-8