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Reality hitting? – Gavinsblog.com
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Reality hitting?

Finally some sensible figures from an economist:

45% peak to trough house price falls, excluding inflation.

If you include inflation that could be over 50%. This is what happens in a typical housing correction. Not alone that, but prices tend to overshoot fair value. And it will drag on into 2010. At least. I said this to some colleagues a few weeks ago – that if a house was valued at around €300,000 in late 2006, then its trough value is €150,000, or maybe less. Astonished, one friend said there was no way that could happen.

I responded by saying that people said that on the way up too, that there was no way prices could keep going up. They did. And then they peaked. And it was a bubble.

Oh wait, RTE have taken out the 45% figure that featured on the News At One today. How odd.


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