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December 2008 – Page 2 – Gavinsblog.com
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Biffo, Brian and Coughlan

Watching these three fumble around brought to mind a certain image. They remind of three drunken louts, staggering their way through Templebar, bumping into each other, into walls, into rubbish bins, and the further they walk the more likely it is that all three will, at varying times, collapse face first in a pool of stale Guinness, followed by their own vomit. At which point Ireland will be calling in the International Monetary Fund to bail us out.

While some may consider my views anti-FF, they are not. I don’t see much promise from the FG or Labour, besides perhaps Richard Bruton, and even Eamon Gilmore (his deadbeat speech was rather good). But these are only individuals, not their entire parties.

From where will the vision come? To say I am pessimistic about the future of this country would be an understatement. 2009 will be armageddon.

Deepthroat in Ireland

Back in October, someone calling themselves Deepthroat posted on the property forum thepropertypin.com. Some called him (or her) a crank, but others had their curiosity piqued. I for one welcome our own deepthroat, but wonder if the language could be a little more transparent. The earlier posts in October seem to indicate the Fitzpatrick debacle last week. I wonder what 2009 will bring. Many of these posts have since been deleted, but are available via the Google cache.

On October 16, Deepthroat said the following:

I am sick to the pit of my stomach to see what has played out in the media and I cannot bear it any more. The Irish public deserves better and needs to know the whole truth.

I have access to several people in the dail and these are the rumours that are cirulating in the small tight circle of powerful people who really know what has been happening the last few weeks:

– The events of the last few weeks are nothing compared to what has gone behind closed doors and is only known to the few people that attended top level meetings when the Irish banking system nearly hit the wall a few weeks ago. A financial scandal involving several household names was barely kept away from the public as a result of the panic in the stock market and has since been swept under the carpet. There are many individuals who would end up destroyed if the real story ever gets told. Unfortunately for them, the measures introduced did not stop the shitstorm that is coming. Thie truth can only be contained for a short while, even as I write a desparate cover up is under way to limit the damage that will be done to the Irish establishment once the journos get their heads around the truth ( as one individual almost has). Timeline: 3-6 months.

– Mary Harney and the Green Party are now being repositioned by spin doctors as the fall guys for some of the crap that is coming. Expect Harney to resign and the government to collapse as FF blames everybody but themselves. Timeline: 6 months – 1 year.

– A new government will be formed with FG/Labour and SF. A significant proportion of people in the highest ranks of Irish society will have their careers ended.

The truth is out there.

And

Think of what I am referring to as property Ansbacher, but with land-banks owned by shell companies. The collapse of the Irish banking system made a few individuals very scared, and scared people loosen their tongues. Our so-called political class is up to their armpits in this crap. This stuff has risen to the surface only accidentally in the last few years (for instance, CAB has been chasing corporate phantoms owned by other corporate phantoms).

As for FG and SF not getting into bed together, I have it on good authority that neither would like to face the electorate and will swallow hard and get on with the business of government.

Times have changed out there. Expect surprises.

Interesting stuff. Later on he replied:

The world has changed. FF are not the only party with their fingers in the sweety jar. This cuts right across all political divides. Six months ago, nobody would have predicted what has happened to the Irish economy. Perhaps in about six months from now, the unthinkable will happen.

Ask yourself these questions –

– Why have the Irish banks been bailed out and yet no senior banking figures been axed, unlike nearly every other country in Europe in similar circumstances?
– Why did the Financial Regulator not clamp down on irresponsible bank lending to developers?
– Why are the full banking liabilities kept secret?
– Why were Section 23 tax breaks continued even when those in the ‘know’ saw that the bubble was bursting?

Look to Mr.Juan Antonio Roca of Marbella, as an example.

Look to Argentina. Where is our Elisa Carrió?

There is an elephant is the living room.

Watch this space. Carefully.

And:

Clues. I cannot name names, even hint at names (sorry E).
But I will tell you how it works. Spin doctors are cynical depraved individuals and will use anything to create and manipulate the public sentiment. Just like a stage magician will be flourishing his hand with a handkerchief, while the other hand is actually up to something devious while you are not watching.

Always watch the hand they do not want you to look at.

For instance. It seems politically strange and naive to attack pensioners and remove their medical cards, when all you are saving is €100 million. There are easier ways to save this money without arousing such hostility.

However, this does two things. It will fill the airwaves with shouting and complaining (possibly justified) about ‘the poor old people’ for weeks and diverts attention away from ‘the other hand’, the one they do not want you to see. Another prediction – the pensioners will get to keep their medical cards (mostly) whilst at the same time isolating Mary Harney for a future fall when it is politically expedient. While the media obsesses about medical cards, the banking scheme was released, the terrible truth covered up for another little while and the FF head honchos disappear conveniently off the Irish stage to Brussels.

The plan all along was to arouse public hostility as a smoke screen. The medical card fiasco is a huge red herring.

In the coming weeks and months, keep watching the hand the magician does not want you to notice. To quote someone we know, it is all ‘smokes and daggers’.

And the next day:

Things have changed fast since I last posted.

It seems that those with something to lose are getting nervous. The announcement that the financial regulator will be examining the banks debts has meant that time is even more limited than I speculated earlier for the massive cover up at the center of the Celtic Tiger to be exposed. The book keepers in the UK and elsewhere are planning to pull the plug if this is not contained. This means using the nuclear option. In the next few weeks an Irish bank will be allowed to fail and a major public figure will be the scape goat. The banks liabilities will be conveniently absorbed by the government without having to disclose who owed what. This seems to be Plan A.

But, just in case, Harney, the Greens and even FF are now exposed to the wrath of the Irish public, the smoke screen of the medical cards was nearly too successful. A useful sideshow. But it has caused deep instability within the government (as it was intended to do) because those behind the scenes with everything to lose are considering relinquishing power in order to save their own skins from the storm that is coming. This seems to be Plan B.

In 2002 and 2005 this scandal was contained, in different and vicious ways. It may not be so easy to cover it up now. The government may fall on its own sword to save the people with real power.

Look for the patterns in the Capital Expenditure Program. Expect Chinese money to be used creatively. There may also be an announcement from the EU on something unexpected. Sir Alan Walters may have been right and if so, this cover up will lead us into Argentinian territory. This may be the unintended Plan C, accompanied by a new Flight of the Earls, except this time the Earls are more crooks than nobles.

The game is nearly up.

And this week:

I was here before, but I got into Deep Trouble. A certain party got wind of my posts and I had to remove myself.
The empire has now crumbled however and the party involved has worse problems to worry about than me. By the use of certain keywords in this message, senior boards members can vouch for who am I.

It has not come to pass exactly as I predicted, but there was an attempt to destroy a foolish third party in attempt to add credibility to certain public institutions and remove the limelight from where it had become uncomfortable. Plan B has now been rolled out and in an effort to ‘protect’ the banking systems, an attempt is being made to hide the truth. What has come out is only the tip of the iceberg. An entire generation of Irish people has had their futures written off by the greed and stupidity of a small clique of politicians, business people, bankers and public servants.

The manipulation is somewhat breathtaking. At my level, it is easy to think it is about keeping control – but see how the pork ‘crisis’ was delayed until the European Authorities could step in and save the poor farmers? All in the same week that the new Lisbon referendum was announced. Result – large possible ‘No’ vote taken out by fear. Fantastic. But wrong.

But even so, this earthquake that is now rumbling it’s way through the Irish political class – this is bigger and will be harder to control. Not since 2004 have so many ‘respectable’ people woken up to find the disgusting truth about their wealth almost front page news. To the two journalists who contacted me through PM – keep digging! There is gold down there. Lots of it.

My final riddle – who guards the guardians? Even dogs without teeth have an owner.

I am old and cynical now. You may see me on TV in the background somewhere as this thing unwides. I will try to smile.

It’s time to regulate.

Irish bank bailout, part 3

The Government will pump €5.5 billion into three of its largest banks after the collapse of the country’s property market and the impact of the global financial crisis eroded their capital.

The government will inject €2bn into Allied Irish Banks, the biggest lender by market value, and €2bn in Bank of Ireland, the Department of Finance said. Anglo Irish Bank will get €1.5 billion and the Government will control shares with 75% of the Anglo Irish voting rights.

Continue reading “Irish bank bailout, part 3”

Fitzpatrick resigns

I really am absolutely puzzled by the Irish Times headline:

FitzPatrick is first high-profile Irish casualty of global crisis

How, exactly, is he a casualty of a global crisis?

What have toxic US CDOs got to do with the transfering €87 million in loans with Anglo to another bank before the group’s September 30th year end?

Or indeed, is it coincidental that the same pair of directors at Anglo who have resigned, Fitzpatrick and Lar Bradshaw, are also under “investigation” by the Irish Stock Exchange for insider trading?

Is it also coincidental that they chose to resign at 9pm on the Thursday that the Dail breaks up for Christmas?

Is their relationship to the DDDA also coincidental to their resignation?

I simply do not accept that the Anglo Irish house of cards was brought down by anything other than our bursting property bubble and nonsensical lending.

Blaming the international crisis for Fitzpatrick’s resignation also makes no sense.

Conor Cruise O'Brien

O’Brien was born on November 3, 1917 and died today, December 18, 2008. When I first started reading the Sindo I always found him engaging but never really agreed with him.

I could never understand how he moved so easily from one end of the political spectrum to the other. Of course I know him best for coining the phrase Grotesque, Unbelievable, Bizarre and Unprecedented, or GUBU, in reference to Charlie Haughey and the discovery of a murder suspect in the apartment of the Fianna Fáil Attorney General Patrick Connolly.

Anglo Irish Bank – a lesson in an Irish solution…

Chairman of Anglo Irish Bank Sean Fitzpatrick has resigned. The €87m figure could lead to serious problems for the bank, with the bank now only worth €250m in total.

The Financial Regulator has known for months, so the Government has known for months, and still they went ahead and guaranteed Anglo Irish Bank. We could see the Government stepping in to save Anglo.

And this very interesting stuff from Shane Ross from last year about the relationship between the DDDA and Anglo.

Continue reading “Anglo Irish Bank – a lesson in an Irish solution…”

Morning papers

Irish Times

Pressure on to speed up funds injection for banks

Ireland is on rebound from consumerism, says President

Failure of €37m e-government Reach project criticised by Labour

Memoirs of a Ganley rapporteur, albeit confidential
Elaine Byrne, on the contradictions in Government dealings with Ganley

Guardian

‘I was still holding my grandson’s hand – the rest was gone’
Second in the Afghan series

Telegraph

Royal Mail stake to be sold to private foreign firm in £3bn deal
A large stake in Royal Mail is to be sold to a foreign postal company under plans drawn up by ministers, the Daily Telegraph can disclose.

Britain faces worst recession in living memory, Cabinet minister Tessa Jowell admits
The British economy is facing the worst recession in living memory, Tessa Jowell has admitted.

The iPhone Nano

Rumours abound again about a smaller version of the very popular iPhone. Engadget report on leaked pictures of specs for the protective covers for the anticipated iPhone – which could be launched at MacWorld next month.

iPhone Nano?

I would argue that it is inevitable, whether next month or not, that Apple will release a scaled down version of the iPhone. There are two very good reasons to do this, IMHO. One, many people, especially women, complain about the size of the iPhone. Two, many people complain about the size of the iPhone. It will also likely be lower cost, and attract customers who previously would have considered the option too expensive. It also gets you a new sector of the market.

I have been mulling an iPhone purchase for some time now, but I will wait until after MacWorld next month before I decide on a purchase.

Picking Steven Chu

Barack Obama has picked his energy team. Says Bloomberg:

Obama named Nobel laureate Steven Chu as his choice as secretary of the Energy Department and Lisa Jackson as head of the Environmental Protection Agency. He also named former EPA chief Carol Browner to fill a new position as head of the National Energy Council and Nancy Sutley to serve as head of the White House Council on Environmental Quality.

While lawmakers and presidents in the past have repeatedly promised to find alternative sources of energy, “our dependence on foreign oil has only grown,” the president-elect said today at a Chicago press conference where he announced his picks. “This time has to be different.”

The newly named members of his administration will help push Obama’s goal of having mandatory limits on U.S. greenhouse gases, as well as a proposal to create a $150 billion clean- energy fund to boost renewable technologies.


Jim Fallows reckons
Chu is a superb pick, and points to a very interesting interview with him from a few years back. It’s worth a look. As Jim says, scientists who can explain complex concepts easily and without being condescending are always good to have. Chu strikes me as an incredibly smart guy, but not alone that, a very with it guy too.


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