Category: Caucasian Politics

Speculation is rife. Zurab Zhvania is dead, along with Raul Usupov. If one wanted to take full control of the Georgian government there are three posts that hold the most power. Mikhail Saakashvili would be a prime suspect if, along with the Prime Minister, the Speaker of Parliament, Nino Burjanadze, also ended up dead. It is interesting to note that the BBC reports “Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has said he is taking charge of the government following the death of his prime minister on Wednesday.” Georgian media reports that

Saakashvili, who has personally assumed the leadership of the executive, will have to appoint new prime minister within a week after consulting with the parliament’s factions. The candidate will have to nominate new cabinet members and introduce them to parliament for approval within ten days. According to the constitution, the cabinet is automatically dissolved in case the prime minister stops fulfilling his duties with any reason.

I think this will be a wait and see, who is appointed will be interesting.

Zhvania was a man who turned coats many times. What is strange about his death was how strange his death was. A faulty heater causing monoxide poisoning just doesn’t sound right. Both are likely to have been wealthy, both would have had to have been asleep alone in, what I’m told, was a modern apartment. In order for them both to die a host of factors would have had to come together.

Some in Georgia suspect Saakashvili, known to be a cunning politician. Similar methods were used by previous leaders, including Shevardnadze, in order to gain almost total power. Other suspects include the Ossetians – though a sophisticated assassination by smugglers is unlikely. Usupov was a senior politician in the area surrounding contested South Ossetia, and following the car bomb in Gori this week, some might say the points the finger at Ossetians.

Some may say the FSB, directed by Putin, could carry out such a killing, and make it appear accidental. What would Putin have to gain? Destabilising Georgia is an idea for him, since disputes over Abkazia are ongoing. The massive B-T-C oil pipeline going through Georgia is due to be completed this year, a pipeline Moscow was never happy with, since it took away valuable oil transit revenues from their own Caspian wells.

However it should be noted that Zhvania was in favour of selling a gas pipeline to a Russian company, Gazprom. Something that others in Georgia, including Nino Burjanadze, were keenly against. So who would gain by a killing a proponent of selling strategic pipelines to Russia…some countries come to mind, but I could get bogged down in a host of conspiracy theories.

There appear to be simply too many reasons as to why this was not simply an accident, and I think to discount the possibility that they were murdered would be naive.

I am watching events in Georgia closely, there must be more to this than first appears. More soon.

Mikhail Saakashvili, President of Georgia, had an article in the IHT last week. He marks a year since the Rose revolution with an update on Georgia’s progress.

When my administration took office, three provinces of Georgia were unstable and viewed themselves as independent enclaves: Adzharia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The first step toward reunification came in May, when I worked with reform-minded citizens in Adzharia, near the Black Sea, to force out a thoroughly corrupt autocrat. In South Ossetia and Abkhazia, we are working hard to achieve reunification through peaceful means. We have asked international organizations to do more. Our autonomy offer to South Ossetia is unprecedented and we will work with the international community for a resolution. Abkhazia remains a more difficult task. But we are working assiduously – with those in the region and our neighbor Russia – and I am confident we will peacefully heal the wounds of the Georgian nation.

Economically, we have initiated a privatization effort that would make Milton Friedman proud, selling everything the government had no business owning in the first place. Why, in the 21st century, should a government own hotels? It shouldn’t, and our government no longer does. Moreover, we are completely overhauling our tax code, replacing it with a people-friendly, pro-growth system that relies on a simple flat tax.

We seek to build economic, cultural and security relations with our friends in the South Caucasus and around the globe. Our close relationship with America is one of our proudest accomplishments. Georgia is a steadfast partner in the war on terror and our capabilities have been enhanced by American training and equipment. For this, we are extremely grateful.

We have contributed troops to Afghanistan and the peacekeeping mission in Kosovo. This month we increased our troop levels in Iraq fivefold. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization recently approved our military reform plans – a critical step on the path to integration in NATO structures. We are also taking the necessary political, legal and economic steps to make our goal of joining the European Union a reality.

As we celebrate a year of our new democracy, I am deeply proud of my people, my government and my country. Yes, we have a long way to go, but the path is clear. For every day that we reduce corruption and crime, we bolster the hopes of every Georgian. For every day that we see Georgians from all over the world returning home, we inspire the dreams of a new generation. We also see that the message of our revolution – that democracy is universal and can be successful in post-Soviet states – is widely spreading in the region.

Many Georgians remain sceptical. The pace is agonisingly slow. One thing that strikes me about Georgians is that even if they spent 10 years working abroad, they would always go home. They have a love for their country I have not seen in many other cultures. I hope Mikhail is right – and Georgia’s economy does pick up. This piece by Kathy Lally from earlier in the week provides a good counter balance to Saakashvili ‘s piece.

The events in the Ukraine are certainly interesting ones. The split in the country is evident, with large tracts of the Eastern regions supporting closer ties with Russia through Viktor Yanukovych. Curiously, or perhaps not surprisingly, the blogosphere largely supports the pro-Western Victor Yushchenko.

Perhaps that’s because we are Westerners ourselves. What is curious to me is the conversations I have with Georgian, Russian and yes, Ukrainian people. Despite their obvious dislike for Putin, my Georgian friends are inclined to support Yanukovych – simply because they don’t want to see yet another Soviet-era country move towards NATO and the EU. It should be noted though that Georgians are great lovers of Josef “Iron man” Dzhugashvili, he was afterall from Gory, Georgia. Russians seem to be plainly in support of Putin’s efforts to ensure Ukraine’s continuing close ties with Moscow, and too fear NATO expanion. While my Ukrainian friends are split either way.

To me what is plain is that no matter what people think, a fair election did not take places. Have another one – and if the majority favour moving closer to Russia – so be it. I hope my liking for liberal democracy does not make my too ethno-centric in my views.

I can’t keep up with events in the Ukraine, but Dan Drezner has been blogging on it non-stop.

The very dangerous words have finally been said – the Ukraine could be on the brink of very serious civil strife. The situation seems set to escalate, as the US refuses to recognise the result as legitimate. Now both parties have upped the ante :

Calling for a general strike, Mr Yushchenko told a vast crowd of supporters in the central Independence Square that Ukraine was on the brink of a “civil conflict”.

Mr Kuchma, who backs Mr Yanukovych, denounced the opposition protests and warned civil war “could well become a reality at the present time”.

If war does break out, how would it affect already strained Russo-European relations? In my humble opinion the election was indeed rigged, and Putin is backing the man who wants Ukraine to move further east rather than further West. If Putin can engineer this kind of behaviour, I have no doubt he is intimately involved, then how will approach continuing tensions in the Ossetia/Abkhazia disputes?

Any civil conflict in this region will have huge implications, and could well draw in a number of other countries. Reports and rumours also suggest that Russian Special Forces, the famed Alpha, who took Kabul in under 2 hours during the Soviet invasion in December 1979, are now in the Ukraine – dressed as Ukrainian soldiers.

Ukraine has 50 million people – a significant number. More CIA facts are here.

More ructions in one of Georgia’s breakaway regions :

Russia may intervene in Georgia’s breakaway province of Abkhazia to protect its interests there, if a post- election crisis escalates further.

In response, Georgia has called on the international community to protect the country’s sovereignty.

A decade-long row between Georgia and Russia over Abkhazia is getting worse.

One person is reported to have died in clashes on Friday between government and opposition supporters in the Abkhaz regional capital Sukhumi.

Moscow has accused the opposition in Abkhazia of attempting to overthrow the Russian-backed government and has pledged to intervene if the crisis isn’t resolved.

Georgia has responded angrily, accusing Moscow of violating Georgia’s sovereignty with unacceptable statements.

The dispute follows Friday’s rally, during which supporters of the Abkhaz opposition leader, Sergey Bagapsh, stormed government buildings in Sukhumi.

They later agreed to give control of the buildings back to state security.

But Moscow said it holds the opposition fully responsible for the crisis.

Charles King has been doing some good essays on the problems in Georgia for Foreign Affairs. Elections in the breakaway region of Abkhazia have brought Georgia back into the news recently. It should be noted that the Kremlin’s man is likely to win in what Georgia sees as illegitamate elections.

Raul Khadzhimba is seen as Moscow’s man in a region where Russian influence and investment is increasing steadily, despite an official economic blockade. For this unrecognised strip of land, Russia’s support has provided a lifeline. “Abkhazia will continue in the same direction it’s been heading, for full independence”, Mr Khadzhimba declared, emerging from the polling booth. “Unity with Georgia is a thing of the past, now we look to Russia for economic integration, but as an independent state.”

But as King notes in an update in a Foreign Affairs entry, the situation is far from clear cut:

Tensions have also been rising in Abkhazia, the region along the northwestern coast which, like South Ossetia, has been functionally independent for more than ten years. President Saakashvili has vowed to block any ships from docking at Abkhazia’s ports and to try to prevent Russian tourists from visiting the attractive beaches (a mainstay of the secessionist republic’s economy). The Georgian government has repeatedly argued that it is seeking a peaceful solution to these crises and that any violence has been solely the result of provocation by Russia and the secessionists. Yet it was in precisely these conditions that the disastrous wars of the early 1990s began: as attempts by the central government to push its case for reintegrating regions that had already de facto seceded.

President Saakashvili has often argued that these unrecognized states are little more than Russia’s stooges — levers that Moscow can use to keep Georgia weak at a time when the country has become a solid partner of the United States. That understates the complexity of the situation, however. Especially in Abkhazia, local citizens are united in their desire not to be part of Georgia. They won a war for independence in the early 1990s, and they have spent more than a decade building something that looks like a real state. Georgia’s territorial woes are thus not simply about rebuilding a single country. They are about trying to unite several independent ones. So far, however, neither Georgia nor the international community has been able to offer anything attractive enough to woo the South Ossetians and Abkhaz into a unified country. As recent events have shown, when Georgia flexes its muscles, the secessionists are simply reminded of why they fought — and, with Russia’s help, won — the civil wars of the early 1990s.

While many might support the right to self-determination of the Abkhaz people, it should be noted that up until the war in the early 90’s, most of the region were Georgians. As this BBC entry notes:

At the time of the collapse of the USSR in 1991, less than a fifth of the people of Abkhazia were ethnic Abkhaz while the rest of the population was made up largely of Georgians.

When Georgia became independent, supporters of a break with Tbilisi in favour of independence and closer ties with Russia became more vociferous. Tension rose and in 1992 Georgia sent troops to enforce the status quo.

In late 1993, they were driven out amidst fierce fighting. Several thousand people were killed. About 250,000 Georgians became refugees and are still unable to return. Most of those who remained have since left too.

I can see why Georgians might be pretty pissed off.