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TD/Senate expenses 1998 – 2008

[cross posted from thestory.ie]

No, we don’t have the expenses, yet anyway. But we have started the process. In August I sent the following FOI request to the Houses of the Oireachtas Commission (the crowd who manage the Dail and Seanad):

August 17, 2009

Request for access to records under the Freedom of Information Acts 1997 and 2003

Dear Sir/Madam,

In accordance with Section 7 of the above mentioned Acts, I wish to request access to the following records which I believe to be held by the Houses of the Oireachtas Commission (“the Commission”):

1) A breakdown of all expenses claimed by TDs broken down by TD and by the following calendar years: 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1997

2) A breakdown of all expenses claimed by Senators broken down by Senator and by the following calendar years: 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1997

3) The guidelines provided to TDs and Senators on how they can claim expenses. A guide as to what they are and are not allowed to claim and what documentation is required in order to claim expenses.

My preferred form of access to these documents is in digital format.

Given that much if not all of this information has already been found and produced I do not anticipate that any exemptions will be required nor that any further costs other than the standard €15 charge will be incurred.

If you decide to request further payment I would like to be provided with an itemised fees receipt outlining precisely why an additional cost is required.

Sincerely,

Gavin Sheridan

I since received a phonecall, outlining that data from 2005 on (since it has been digitised), would be made available in September. So the other part of my FOI refers to information between 1997 (1998 really since the FOI Act does not cover 1997) and 2004, or stuff that has not been digitised and is sitting in boxes somewhere. Today I received an estimated cost for search and retrieval of this information.

There are two newsworthy snippets in the letter. First, the bad news:

“After consideration and consultations, I estimate that the services of staff members totalling 110 hours will be the minimum required to efficiently complete the search and retrieval work on the balance of your request for the years 1998 to 2004… The prescribed amount chargeable for each such hour is €20.95 resulting in a fee of €2,304. Additionally, it is estimated that a total of 3,200 pages containing the records for the period from 1998 to 2004 will have to be photocopied, resulting in a further charge of €136.00 with the overall fee amounting to €2,440.”

Yes, you read that right.

Second, the not so bad news:

“… there is a gap in in the hard copy records in respect of the period from January 1, 1998 to March 31, 1998. In addition, it is unclear that the final released data is available for the following periods as the material has not, as yet, been located:

April 1999 to October 1999
June 2000 to June 2001
July 2002 to June 2003

If you require retrieval of these records it is likely to involve a substantial number of man-hours and a corresponding increase in the fee to be charge. I would be grateful if you would let me know if you require those records.”

Why is this not so bad? Well the news aspect firstly. The Houses of the Oireachtas have so far been unable to locate expenses data for a combined period of 29 months. Eh? Not alone that, they want to charge me to find this information. Information that really should be in the public domain anyway. But we have to deal with the system we have…

Why do we want this data? Because we want a full historical account of all expenses claimed on record, for all national public representatives. It is also data that would be integrated into KildareStreet.

I’m gonna throw this question at our readers, what do you think we should do?

I have a few ideas on how to proceed, but I’d like to get some feedback first.

Michael O'Flynn vs Eamon Gilmore

At the CIF annual conference today, a room full of developers sat down for some speeches. Eamon Gilmore gave one, and in the Q&A Cork developer Michael O’Flynn (famous for the Elysian development, still mostly empty) had two questions for Mr Gilmore:

What does he think of developers?
Why does he keep saying NAMA is a bailout for developers?

Apologies for the sound quality, twas the best I could do.

Earlier, Eamon Gilmore gave this speech to the room of developers:

Part 2:

"A floor in the market"

The lads over on the Pin have been discussing this particular sentence, in the context of its use by Brian Lenihan in front of the Oireachtas Committee last week.

Let’s take a closer look to what Mr Lenihan said, because this is really important. It goes to the core of his thinking, and the likely price levels he will announce next week.

“With regard to personal guarantees, they will transfer to NAMA. NAMA must be in the same position as the bank from which it takes over the loan.

I agree with the Deputy regarding foreclosure. If a flood of property is dumped on the market, it will be utterly unsustainable. That is one of the reasons we must establish NAMA and try to establish a floor in the market. We are very near it on the basis of the figures and data we have about the yield from property. The yield is at an all time high relative to the assets, which is a clear objective economic indicator that we are approaching the trough. We must banish our devils, the suggestion that we have further to go. That is part of the problem and the reason for the illiquidity in the housing market.”

Better yet, watch him say it:

Are we close to the trough? I would argue we are nowhere near the trough. The pinsters agree. Let’s take a look at some stats. Average Price of Houses by Quarter, Nationally. First up, new house prices since record began, in 2006 euros, up to the latest data available, Jan-March 2009, according to the CSO:

Screen shot 2009-09-11 at 03.36.09

Notice the first property bubble started around 1996/1997 and peaked around 2001. The second started around 2002 and peaked in early 2007. According to the Mr Lenihan, “we are very near [the floor] on the basis of the figures”. Does it look like we are anywhere near the floor?

Ah you might say, that applies to new houses. What about second-hand homes? More stats from the CSO:

Screen shot 2009-09-11 at 03.40.26

Again, does it look like we are anywhere near the floor? No. But Mr Lenihan thinks we are.

What do I think? Well I took that graph and painted on it (yes, really!). Prices will keep falling, and I don’t think even NAMA can stop it. This is completely unscientific, but I think it is based on sound reasoning (criticisms welcome):

Screen shot 2009-09-11 at 04.09.12

The red line represents where prices might have gone had there been no bubble (tracking inflation largely?). The green lines represent our two bubbles. The orange line represents the most recent ESRI data I could find, representing where house prices are right now. Mr Lenihan thinks this line is the floor. It’s not.

The floor is likely close to the black horizontal line I’ve drawn, where the price declines continue for another 2 or 3 years, eventually meeting up with where prices would have gone had there been no bubble at all. But it’s likely lower than that, probably at or below €100,000 for an average house nationally. This is because on the downside (as prices fall) it tends to overshoot where prices would have gone normally (the red line).

Of course, if the average national house price is say €100,000, that means you would get apartments for €50,000, or large houses for €150,000. And everywhere in between, depending on location and all the other factors that impact on house prices.

But of course I could be wrong. Where do you think house prices are going?

Update: This post is being discussed on politics.ie. Do I have to emphasise that this is only my own view, based on other property bubbles I have looked at, and is a completely unscientifc study, that basically involves me speculating? I do not claim economics expertise, but when I see a graph like that, I see prices continuing to fall. If you believe I am completely wrong, then please correct me, I am entirely open to being persuaded. I am after all, doodling on a graph.

New car sales figures and other stats

New figures were released today, and they are not pretty. I’ve tabulated all new car sales on file from the CSO, that is since 1965: (The data was gleaned from here)

newcarsales

Here is the large version of that image.

New car sales are now hovering around what they were at least 15 years ago. I’ve put the data into a public spreadsheet.

Another illustrative chart is house completions since 1975. We have returned to levels last seen in 1992. (The data was gleaned from here)

housecomple

Full size pic here.

Another very illustrative chart, especially in the context of NAMA is this graph. It shows average house prices since 1975.

houseprices

Where do you reckon prices are going naturally? If you draw a line from 1975 along the average until the bubble started around 1996/1997 and keep going… prices would be headed back to around 4 times average salary, circa €120,000. (The data was taken from here)

Full size chart here.

The John O'Donoghue files (Part 10 – 'Joxer' goes to Stuttgart)

John O’Donoghue goes to Stuttgart.

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Previously:
JOD Part 1 (India)
JOD Part 2 (Birmingham)
JOD Part 3 (Berlin)
JOD Part 4 (London)
JOD Part 5 (London)
JOD Part 6 (Venice)
JOD Part 7 (Manchester)
JOD Part 8 (New York)
JOD Part 9 (Turin)

The missing €270,000

Here’s a question for everyone:

Add these numbers and what do you get?

€39.409m
€17.548m
€22.742m
€20.359m
€5.777m
€8.303m

Answer?

€114.138m.

But according to the Houses of the Oireachtas Commission document, it’s not. Here is a screen grab from the document, for 2007 spending:

Screen shot 2009-09-06 at 01.46.02

€113.868 million?

That leaves one question. Where is the other €270,000?

I’ve tabulated the document into a public spreadsheet.

Friday night newsdumps and Bord Snip

So during the buildup to Brian Cowen appearing on the Late Late Show, the Department of Finance went and published a huge amount of information onto their website, the Special Group Background Documents, submitted by departments etc to Bord Snip, to outline how they proposed cutting back.

It is worth noting that many or all of these documents were actively being sought by journalists through FOI requests, and in the normal course of events, would have been gradually released with redactions. But the Department, on a Friday evening, dumped the entire lot:

To facilitate the work of the Special Group on Public Service Numbers and Expenditure Programmes, the heads of the various Government Departments/Public Bodies prepared initial evaluation papers detailing their areas of expenditure. The Department of Finance also prepared separate evaluation papers on each area, as well as some papers evaluating a range of cross-cutting issues. These documents are set out below for reference; with a limited number of redactions in some cases in line with the provisions of the Freedom of Information Acts 1997 and 2003 (please click here for more information in this regard).

There are a huge range of documents, including:

Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food
Community, Galetacht and Rural Affairs
Comptroller and Aiditor General
Education (Part 1)
Education (Part 2)
Environment , heritage and Local Government
Foreign Affairs
Houses of the Oireachtas
Justice, Equality and Law Reform
Office of Public Works
Office of the Appeals Commissioner
Public Appointments Service
Social and Family Affairs
State Laboratory
Valuation office

I was particularly interested in the Houses of the Oireachtas. It outlines spending by the House over the past six years, and gives a breakdown on how much it costs the taxpayer to pay for the Dail and Seanad.

I’ve uploaded it to Scribd here.

Under Main Areas of Spending, it is interesting to see just how much spending on our TDs and Senators has increased. For example:

Administration in 2004: €26.4 million.
Administration in 2009 (est): €59.5 million.

A 125% increase in just six years.

Or:

Sec Asst Salaries in 2004: €8.9 million
Sec Asst Salaries in 2009 (est): €18.7 million

A 110% increase in just six years.

But staff numbers are also interesting:

In 2004 there were 328 civil servants, 51 other public servants and 209 political staff for members (TDs, Senators).
In 2009 there are 425 civil servants (30% rise), 65 other public servants and 350 political staff for members (67% rise).

The total figures for maintaining our parliamentary democracy are:

From January 2004 to December 2009 (est): €654 million

Of which:

Members’ salaries: €134.955 million
Sec Assistant salaries: €98.529 million
Members’ travel: €35 million
Members’ expenses: €50.374 million

So let me get this right.

In six years it cost us more than half a billion euros to pay for Dail Eireann and the Senate?

But how much was proposed to be cut?

€6.5m in 2009 and in the three years from 2010 to 2012, the Houses of the Oireachtas have proposed cutting €11.8m (or about €4m per year out of total expenditure of about €137m per year).

That’s a 3% cut folks.

Chart:

The John O'Donoghue files (Part 9 – Turin)

The minister heads to Turin with his wife, his private secretary, secretary general Philip Furlong and assistant secretary general Con Haugh. They use the Ministerial Air Transport Service (MATS) to do it.

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Previously:
JOD Part 1 (India)
JOD Part 2 (Birmingham)
JOD Part 3 (Berlin)
JOD Part 4 (London)
JOD Part 5 (London)
JOD Part 6 (Venice)
JOD Part 7 (Manchester)
JOD Part 8 (New York)

Donations to TDs 1997 – 2008

Myself and Mark Coughlan, with huge help from Elena Eghawhary, have been working on spreadsheets for the past number of weeks. We are beginning to publish the results.

First off is a spreadsheet of all declared donations to TDs on record. We have setup a new blog to start publishing this data, along with the results of any FOIs we are working on. We think these first spreadsheets are important – they combine data that thus far has existed on government websites in a very disorganised fashion. We are hoping to change that.

Check out the document over at The Story.


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